Wednesday, September 2, 2009

Will interest rates in India move up?

http://new.valueresearchonline.com/story/h2_storyview.asp?str=100738

Ritesh Jain thinks so in this article.I guess once you have govt. handing out lot of money in benefits like NREGA scheme etc, the deficit will keep climbing up.The govt has to borrow a lot from banks and private sector will be left with little money to borrow and grow.So, the interest rates will likely go up.Otherwise, the purchasing power of Indian rupee could go down too.

Either way is not going to be good for Indian economy.I guess because of failed monsoons and shortage in food commodities like sugar and dal, the prices of these items will shoot up.This will put a lot of pressure on the govt to control the price.They might increase the interest rates to suck out the money.

Unfortunately, raising interest rates will also be bad for private sector.All in all,, i guess the Indian stock markets are going to go south in 1-2 years timeframe.

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